To varying degrees, every region of California decreased in percent share of the state’s total production, except for the San Joaquin Valley. Even if these other regions did increase their actual production rates, they still fell in percent share of the total because the large increase in milk production in the San Joaquin Valley outweighed every other region. The Central Coast, Northeast Mountain, and Sierra Nevada Mountain stopped reporting milk production, but did continue to report very small numbers of operations. Every region of California decreased inabsolute number of operations, representing consolidation across the whole industry, however Marin & Sonoma, the North Coast, and San Joaquin Valley increased their percent share of operations, suggesting they are declining slower than the rest of the state and retaining more operations.Based on the maps and regional analysis of dairy production change in California in the last 4 decades, and the literature on transformations in dairy industries, I propose the following framework for understanding the multi-scalar and interdependent patterns of transformation, as they pertain to the California dairy industry. First there is the intensification of production at the farm-level, or the increase output of milk relative to the inputs of land and number of operations. Intensification is associated with three other transformations that may take place within the farm: enlargement or increasing herd sizes; mechanization and technological innovations, for example breeding cows to select for high milk producing genes, using hormones to shorten the time to maturity and to increase lactation, vertical grow system and using milking machines to save labor and increase milking frequency; and finally specialization or the reduction of agricultural activities to focus solely on milk production.
The increasing production in some regions alongside the decreasing number of operations in all regions suggests that intensification is taking place in some places like the San Joaquin Valley more than others. Next, there is a marked trend of consolidation occurring across the industry. There are fewer farms today in all sectors of agriculture, but livestock consolidation has occurred unevenly, and dairy is highlighted as the only type of agriculture continuing to rapidly consolidate . The decline in number of operations across the board is evidence of consolidation occurring within the California dairy industry. Even in counties where milk production is multiplying 2-5 times the 1980s rate, the number of operations has been consistently declining since 2002. Several hypotheses have been forwarded to account for farm consolidation. These include theories such as the treadmill of production where pressures to keep up with new technologies to increase production require farms to invest and expand, resulting in fewer, larger farms . Finally, at the state level, I have observed a regional concentration of dairy production, or a shift in where milk is being produced. In California, dairies are moving into, or at least expanding within, the San Joaquin Valley, a region with a warmer climate, more open space, and that is close to other forms of agriculture for easier access to feed, processing, and distribution. In contrast, Southern California has been steadily decreasing in volume of milk produced and number of operations, likely due to development pressures from Los Angeles. While Southern California lost 7.2 points of percent share in number of operations , the San Joaquin Valley gained 9 points between 1997 and 2017.
A similar pattern has been documented in other states and countries, and the new concentration seems to be associated with non-traditional dairying regions and climates. These three scales of transformation can be seen in the increased milk production over the last 40 years, the decreased number of operations over the past 20 years, and the fact that the San Joaquin Valley, especially Tulare, is the only County where the percent share of production and operations both increased. Marin & Sonoma and the North Coast stand out in the regional analysis as the only regions where the percent share of production decreased but the percent share of operations increased. This suggests that producers here are not keeping up with the San Joaquin Valley’s rates of production, but these two counties are retaining more of their dairy operations than the Southern California or Sacramento Valley regions are. This is likely due to “alternatives” or the non-conventional modes of production that farmers rely on to maintain economic viability. Organic milk production, vertical integration, and value-added products like cheese-making are some of the creative preservations that farmers in Marin Sonoma and Humboldt may use to stay in production . Finally, the apparent disappearance of production from the Central Coast, Northeast Mountain and Sierra Nevada Mountain regions are explained by the patterns of consolidation and regional concentration into a few regions – which implies the decline of production and operations in the peripheral regions. The pattern of intensification, consolidation, and regional concentration that I have described is based on the experience of California but is not exclusive to this state; many of the same contexts exist to an extent in “new dairy states” like Idaho, Texas, and Kansas, which are rising in national ranks for milk production, and in the expanding dairy farms in traditional dairy states like Wisconsin and New York, all of which are increasing herd sizes and decreasing in number of commercial dairies .Concentrated feeding operations, or “mega-dairies,” produce immense amounts milk per farm with herd sizes of over 2,000 cows per operation, demand immense amounts of water and feed, and in turn produce immense amounts of milk and manure in highly concentrated area. This scale of feeding and milk production is possible because of the consolidation, mechanization, specialization, etc. but also because of California’s unique geographic contexts.
The Central Valley, although vulnerable and arid, provides expansive flat land and a warm climate that allows for large herds to be kept outdoors year-round. The local almond, fruit, and silage production also provides relatively inexpensive feed to supplement the grain, oilseed, and hay that is brought in from outside of California. The San Joaquin Valley, the lower half of the Central Valley, has increased its milk production threefold over three decades, now contributing 90% of total milk production with only 69% of the total operations in 2020. This is a remarkable transformation for one region, and there are costs to such concentrated production. The San Joaquin Valley is vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions like drought and flood, and environmental impacts like ground water pollution, land subsidence, local air pollution, and extreme dust with accompanying asthma and other respiratory diseases. Concentrated feeding operations have been linked to impaired streams in California . The 1,750,329 milk cows in California also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, through both intensive anaerobic processing of manure and emission of enteric methane from the rumen. The more than 2,000-cow herd sizes, 110 million hundredweights of milk annually, and hundreds of concentrated animal feeding operations in the middle of the dry and hot Central Valley is a dramatic change from the pasture-based dairy cows that originally provided milk to those who arrived in Northern California less than 200 years ago. Based on these patterns of change observed over the last several decades, I see three potential trajectories for the San Joaquin Valley’s dairy industry: production continues to increase slowly, dairies continue to consolidate, herd sizes continue to grow, and production concentrates further into the San Joaquin Valley, leaving Southern California and Sacramento Valley with fewer cows and farms, production growth ends, the number of dairies continues to decline, pipp racking specialization is maintained as water pressures mean less hay and silage is produced near the cows, and regional concentration in the San Joaquin Valley slows, environmental impacts on water quality and air pollution, methane mandates, and higher feed costs decrease California milk production and herd sizes growth slows. The trajectory of the dairy industry remains to be seen, and will be influenced by multiple factors, including consumer demand, state policy, climate change and environmental pressures, and production in other states.The visualizations and supporting tables show how quickly and drastically intensive feeding transformed the dairy industry in California. There have been distinct varied outcomes in production across different regions and a universal decline in operations with some variation in which regions retained the most diaries. There is strong evidence of a concentration of production and share of operations into the San Joaquin Valley; minor increases in the Sacramento Valley, Marin and Sonoma, and the North Coast; a significant decline in Southern California; and a halt of production reporting in the Central Coast and mountain regions. Whether these declines and increases are the result of the movement of dairies from one region to another cannot be discerned directly from the data. However, these data do reveal patterns of intensification, consolidation, and regional concentration taking place in California. These three forms of transformation are interdependent; the various forms of enlargement and intensification of production at the farm level are both a catalyst for, and the result of, industry consolidation, with operations becoming larger and fewer, therefore requiring more space and encouraging expansion into non-traditional dairy regions and causing declines in coastal and mountainous regions.
The phenomena of intensification, consolidation, and regional concentration are not exclusive to California. Similar contexts exist in new dairy regions like Idaho, West Texas, and more recently Kansas and South Dakota, which are rising in national ranks for milk production, and even in traditional dairy states like Wisconsin and New York, all of which are increasing herd sizes and decreasing in number of commercial dairies . California offers an interesting and important case study for the potential futures of dairy industries in other states, and for the US dairy industry as a whole. The diversity of agricultural regions and geographic contexts in California creates a microcosm for the rest of the US, with traditional dairying regions represented in organic and alternative dairies in Marin and Sonoma, rapidly urbanizing agricultural regions represented by Southern California, and the increasingly concentrated and isolated dairy production in warmer climates represented in the San Joaquin Valley. That said, there are many aspects of California’s geography that set it apart from other states, such as the population density, the Mediterranean climate, and the general agricultural productivity, making it difficult to compare it entirely to other dairy producing regions in the US. There is ample room for future research in the topic of California’s dairy industry that may serve to deepen understanding of the nuances in this case study. The opportunities for further analysis and visualization comparing county-level change in operations and production with the data presented here are extensive, although beyond the scope of this thesis. There is also the possibility of acquiring past data from more years of the Census dating back to the beginning of recorded milk production in California in the mid 1800s. More precise locations and sizes of current individual dairy operations would provide data for a spatial analysis of clustering or proximity to urban areas, agricultural areas, and other dairies, which would help to bolster my findings of a regional concentration into the San Joaquin Valley. To supplement the quantitative data analysis, interviews or surveys with dairy producers across the state, both active and former, would add to the narrative on the causes and impacts of the changes taking place in California. Finally, these findings could be compared to environmental or economic data to assess the impacts of the dairy industry in different regions of California. Beyond California, a similar analysis could be conducted using county-level data from the US as a whole to assess how the dairy industry is changing considering all dairy producing regions.In November 1996, California became the first state to legalize the use of medical marijuana. Since then, a total of 23 states have passed medical marijuana laws , along with 4 states and Washington D.C. legalizing the recreational use of marijuana. With marijuana legislation continuously being seen on state ballots, it is important to research and understand the effects it brings to society. To conduct our research, we will be looking specifically at the effect of medical marijuana use in California. The goal of this paper is to observe the effects that medical marijuana has on crime rates and other drug and alcohol use. A specific question to be answered is whether or not marijuana can be a substitute, rather than a complement, for other illegal drugs and alcohol, resulting in a decrease in crime and drug and alcohol-induced deaths.